Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?

The 27¢ price reflects substantial skepticism about a prolonged Trump-Xi handshake, yet the Yes side offers an extreme 401.6% implied yield, suggesting either significant underpricing or high tail-risk premium for a geopolitical event with genuine uncertainty. The market has surged 10 cents over seven days amid elevated realized volatility (1489%) and a 6.45 vol ratio, indicating price discovery is still active despite 259 days to expiration and modest $195k daily volume. The 9¢ spread and $9.9M open interest are reasonable for a binary geopolitical event, though the cliff risk index of 3 warrants caution around resolution ambiguity regarding what constitutes a "filmed" handshake and timezone specifications.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify. If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”. If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only". Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact. If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Qualifying Requirements: The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person. Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted). The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish. Non-qualifying examples: Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings. Any handshake that is too unclear to measure. Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration. The resolution source will be video footage.

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