Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of April?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $882k open interest and a wide 27¢ spread, suggesting the 36¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The astronomical implied yield of 6,406% on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or thin order books rather than genuine market conviction, especially given the neutral regime and modest 10-day time horizon to expiry. The 600 basis point price decline over seven days (42¢ to 36¢) combined with low Cliff Risk Index of 2 suggests this is a stale market awaiting resolution rather than one with active discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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