Will the Republican Party win the MT-02 House seat?

This market shows extreme conviction in Republican victory at 92¢ with a tight 1¢ spread, but the zero 24-hour volume and modest $17.4k open interest suggest minimal liquidity despite the high probability. The asymmetric implied yields—1,050% risk-adjusted for a "No" outcome versus 15.9% for "Yes"—reflect the lopsided pricing, indicating traders are pricing in a near-certain Republican win in this Montana district with substantial tail-risk premium embedded in the long-shot contrarian position. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a relatively stable market lacking recent price action or significant cross-venue arbitrage opportunities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade