Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Prediction markets currently give a 84% probability that Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?. This contract trades at 84¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (90%) that Anthropic will hold the #2 AI model position by end-April 2026, yet the implied yield for a "No" resolution reaches an extraordinary 25,424%, suggesting severe mispricing or extreme tail risk concentration.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (90%) that Anthropic will hold the #2 AI model position by end-April 2026, yet the implied yield for a "No" resolution reaches an extraordinary 25,424%, suggesting severe mispricing or extreme tail risk concentration. With only $3.4M open interest and $1.1K daily volume against a 13-day expiry, liquidity is dangerously thin for a market this illiquid, and the 199% realized volatility combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 9 indicates potential for sharp repricing as resolution approaches. The 4-cent spread and modest 4-point price movement over seven days appear deceptively stable given the binary nature and imminent expiry, but the neutral regime score (0.409) suggests underlying uncertainty despite the lopsided odds.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
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Trade
sf trade 0xcca580046966603042bf8495f9d8c59c2e6c42156144e252f935567b3e53d03c yes 100