Which company has the #2 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 16 contracts. Kalshi at 36%, Polymarket at 31% — a 5pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
36%
6 contracts
Polymarket
31%
10 contracts
Cross-venue gap
5pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$46K
16 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2031
1668 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 36¢ · Polymarket 31¢ · 5pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (31¢, 10 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (36¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 18% of their title tokens — “Which company has” vs “Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Which company has
Which company has best AI model end of June?: Anthropic
0xa4d726…9cca
Which company has best AI model end of June?: OpenAI
0x734c6c…eee7
Which company has best AI model end of June?: Google
0x0bd1b8…76e4
Which company has second best AI model end of June?: Anthropic
0xd0e97d…c55a
Which company has second best AI model end of June?: OpenAI
0x06a7a2…02c6
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Anthropic
0x0811ed…801e
Which company has second best AI model end of June?: Google
0x9a43c9…e5f3
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Google
0xa3681c…3494
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On): OpenAI
0x2bdf39…bbc8
Cluster 2
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-OPEN
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-XAI
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-ANTH
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Google
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-GOOG
Cluster 3
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?: United States
KXMOONMAN-31-USA
Cluster 4
Will legislation that amends the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 by modifying the statutory definition of “food” (eligible for purchase with SNAP benefits) to specifically include “hot rotisserie chicken” become law before Jan 1, 2027
Will legislation that amends the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 by modifying the statutory definition of “food” (eligible for purchase with SNAP benefits) to specifically include “hot rotisserie chicken” become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act
KXBILLS-HRCA
Cluster 5
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day
0x76c1a6…bbe0
What moved the line
- Jun 6Anthropic↓17pp88→71¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 6Google↑17pp7→24¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1Anthropic↑4pp54→58¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Anthropic↑4pp55→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Anthropic↑4pp82→86¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in technology
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- How many SpaceX launches in May?: 14 or morelast 90% · 6d
- Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026last 90% · 10d
- Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPOlast 85% · 14d
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: <500Blast 4% · 14d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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