Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $120 end of April?

The 11-cent price implies Netflix needs to rally roughly 8% in 11 days to close above $120, yet the extreme 26,095% implied yield on the "Yes" side signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction about the move. With only $57.78 in 24-hour volume against $1.01M open interest and a 19-cent spread, this market lacks sufficient depth to trust the price discovery, and the neutral regime score suggests no directional momentum to support such a sharp rally into month-end. The Cliff Risk Index of 8 indicates elevated volatility risk near expiration, making this an illiquid tail bet rather than a reliable probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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