Will UNI reach $8.00 by December 31, 2026?

This illiquid market with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 41¢ spread suggests the 49¢ price may not reflect true consensus, particularly given the asymmetric implied yields (152.7% for "No" versus 130.1% for "Yes"). UNI would need to appreciate roughly 233% from current levels to hit $8.00 by end-2026, and the extreme 421% realized volatility indicates substantial price swings are possible, though the neutral regime and recent 7-day decline from 55¢ to 49¢ suggest downward momentum. The cliff risk index of 1 and high info arrival rate (3.7/h) point to potential for sharp repricing, but the $5.2M open interest on a binary outcome with 259 days to expiry warrants caution given the illiquidity.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Uniswap (UNI/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:25 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the UNI/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/UNI_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Only the Binance UNI/USDT price feed will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered.

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