What is the current probability for "Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 31¢ (31% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 6, 2026. 228 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 356.4% and 71.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?. This contract trades at 31¢ on Polymarket, closing December 6, 2026.

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31¢

Bid/Ask 31/31¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $4,537.722·OI $108,348.136·Closes Dec 6, 2026·228d remaining

0xcd2640464754b9a894ffec98ac11554fdd507ea89ca01237eabb3a6de4a606e6

7-day price34 snapshots · 93 regime

31¢31¢ current

Apr 829¢Apr 20

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known. If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 356.4%

IY (No) 71.9%

Adj IY 178%

CRI 2

Overround -0.1%

LAS 0.00

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	356.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	71.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	178%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

0¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 2:03:35 AM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:53:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xcd2640464754b9a894ffec98ac11554fdd507ea89ca01237eabb3a6de4a606e6 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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