Over $800M raised on Coinbase in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Over $800M raised on Coinbase in 2026?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This illiquid market with only $1,057 open interest and zero 24-hour volume is pricing an 11% probability of Coinbase raising over $800M in 2026, yet offers an extreme 943% implied yield on the Yes side—a significant mispricing indicator given the token's historical fundraising scale.
Analysis
This illiquid market with only $1,057 open interest and zero 24-hour volume is pricing an 11% probability of Coinbase raising over $800M in 2026, yet offers an extreme 943% implied yield on the Yes side—a significant mispricing indicator given the token's historical fundraising scale. The 8¢ bid-ask spread and dramatic 31% price decline over seven days (from 16¢ to 11¢) suggest thin order books and potential information asymmetry, while the 7.10 volatility ratio and 2,345% realized volatility indicate this market is highly unstable and may be prone to manipulation or sudden repricing. With 259 days to resolution and a cliff risk index of 7, traders should be cautious of the extreme yield mirage—the Yes payout likely reflects illiquidity premium rather than genuine probability.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total amount raised by Coinbase token sales in 2026 exceeds the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be official information published by Coinbase, the respective Coinbase token sale pages, or official communications from projects raising on Coinbase.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xce620456053150d841e7b76aa9107377f9030747133df4cd0dd0cdbc642f92c0 yes 100