Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30?

This market prices Nvidia's chances of reaching #1 on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at just 5%, offering an extreme 9,370% implied yield on the Yes side, though the 6¢ spread and modest $25 daily volume suggest thin liquidity that could amplify price swings. With 74 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, the market appears to be pricing in very low probability despite Nvidia's substantial AI investments, possibly undervaluing their potential to launch or acquire a top-tier model before the June 2026 deadline. The stark contrast between the 9,370% Yes yield and 26% No yield indicates this is a highly speculative tail-risk bet with significant mispricing potential if Nvidia makes an unexpected model announcement.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

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