Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-04-22?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2.4M open interest, suggesting the position is largely trapped. The astronomical implied yields (3591% for Yes, 8080% for No) are artifacts of minimal trading activity rather than genuine opportunities, and the 140% realized volatility combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 2 indicates significant uncertainty about resolution timing given the game's proximity (7 days out). The modest 2-cent price movement over the period and neutral regime score suggest the market lacks conviction, making this a speculative venue with limited depth rather than an efficient pricing mechanism.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 22, 2026 If San Jose Earthquakes wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

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