Will the Democratic Party win the MI-04 House seat?

This MI-04 market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.68M open interest, suggesting stale pricing and a wide 17¢ spread that may not reflect true consensus. The 497% implied yield on the "Yes" side is unusually high for a political market with 199 days to expiry, indicating either deep underpricing of Democratic chances or significant risk premium for a highly uncertain race. The 713% realized volatility and 3.48 vol ratio suggest this market has experienced sharp swings, though the 7-day price has remained flat at 28¢, potentially masking larger historical moves.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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