Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of April?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $486k open interest and a massive 58¢ spread, suggesting the 41¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The annualized implied yield of 3,793% is extraordinarily high for an 11-day window, indicating either severe mispricing or that traders are pricing in extraordinary tail risk given Tesla's realized volatility of 709%. The recent price movement from 42¢ to 46¢ combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 1 and high information arrival rate (3.1/hour) suggests market participants expect significant catalysts before April 30, 2026, though the neutral regime score indicates no clear directional bias.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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