Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of April?

This market displays extreme annualized yields (3013% risk-adjusted) driven by its 11-day expiration window, with realized volatility at 569% suggesting Tesla's price action has been highly erratic relative to the modest 52¢ ask. The 7-point price decline over seven days (61¢ to 52¢) indicates recent bearish momentum, though the neutral regime and 6¢ spread suggest reasonable liquidity for a niche expiry contract with $6.1M open interest. With info arrival at 2.5 events per hour and a cliff risk index of 1, this market is pricing in significant uncertainty with little room for repricing before the April 30 close.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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