Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of April?

The Yes position shows an extreme 13,750% implied yield with only 11 days to expiration, reflecting the sharp 5¢ price decline over seven days and suggesting either capitulation selling or a genuine belief that $430 is unlikely. The 38¢ spread and anemic $0.68 daily volume indicate severe illiquidity, making the 19% probability potentially unreliable and vulnerable to manipulation by modest position sizes. With realized volatility at 1,444% and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, this market is highly sensitive to any Tesla news or broader market moves in the final stretch before 4/30/2026.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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