Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?

FL-14 Republican odds have collapsed 34% over the past week, now pricing in just a 29% win probability with an extraordinarily high 469% implied yield on the Yes side—suggesting either significant recent adverse developments for the GOP or substantial uncertainty being repriced into the market. The extreme 1814% realized volatility and 8.81 vol ratio indicate violent price swings, though modest $270 daily volume and $15.2k open interest raise liquidity concerns for a seat with 200 days to resolution. The neutral regime and 1.8 info arrivals per hour suggest this market is actively digesting new information, making the steep discount to Republican chances potentially exploitable if the recent selloff overshot fundamentals.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade