What is the current probability for "Reya FDV above $400M one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 3¢ (3% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 244 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Reya FDV above $400M one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4827.2% and 4.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Reya FDV above $400M one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Reya FDV above $400M one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Reya FDV above $400M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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3¢

Bid/Ask 2/3¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $4,351.807·Closes Jan 1, 2027·244d remaining

0xe3d6d7467d84542e4f5e2a30ab63d4175cf55fb676afab690e24cd66c0b5973f

7-day price24 snapshots · 6 regime

50¢3¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 29

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Reya's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Reya (https://x.com/reya_xyz) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4827.2%

IY (No) 4.6%

Adj IY 2414%

CRI 32

Overround 0.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4827.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2414%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 12:35:21 PM

Indicators computed 5/1/2026, 12:23:26 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xe3d6d7467d84542e4f5e2a30ab63d4175cf55fb676afab690e24cd66c0b5973f yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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