Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?
Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. The 14¢ price reflects an extremely low 14% probability despite a massive 866% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either significant skepticism about Reya reaching a $150M FDV post-launch or substantial tail risk priced into the contract.
Analysis
The 14¢ price reflects an extremely low 14% probability despite a massive 866% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either significant skepticism about Reya reaching a $150M FDV post-launch or substantial tail risk priced into the contract. Zero 24-hour volume combined with a $6.8M open interest and 2¢ spread indicates illiquidity that could amplify slippage, while the recent 3¢ price decline over seven days signals weakening conviction among holders. With 259 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 6, the market appears to be pricing in meaningful execution or launch timing uncertainty rather than fundamental valuation concerns.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Reya's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Reya (https://x.com/reya_xyz) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
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sf trade 0xe56b73034a1a9f49ecfa624e9d9ca7e2a6e770e8b1881a0062725567c7ee7bff yes 100