Will the US federal government take a stake in TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC or Bytedance?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 799.6% implied yield on the "Yes" side versus just 24.9% on the "No" side, suggesting significant tail-risk pricing for a government equity stake in TikTok or ByteDance despite the low 15¢ price. The 7-day price collapse from 22¢ to 15¢ combined with zero 24h volume and $7.1M open interest indicates thin liquidity and potential stale pricing, while the 2755% realized volatility and 24.33 vol ratio signal this market has experienced extreme swings—likely driven by legislative developments around forced sales or government intervention. With 259 days to expiry and a 6/10 cliff risk index, this contract faces binary regulatory outcomes that could dramatically reprrice the probability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.

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