Which companies will the US take a stake in
Leader sits at 81% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 71%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Rigetti
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
71¢
D-Wave
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$298
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
Venue
Polymarket
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which companies will the US take a stake in
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Pfizer
0x1e4ae2…1d3c
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Boeing
0x6e2c5a…d27c
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Rigetti
0xf179f5…2a9f
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Eli Lilly
0xe5ea72…abcb
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: TSMC
0xf0cfdf…1d00
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Freeport-McMoRan
0xfafdaf…6a0a
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: TikTok US / Bytedance
0xe61206…246c
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Nvidia
0xf86df8…97f1
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Micron
0xec8dc0…487a
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Samsung Electronics
0xbabf4d…4091
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: D-Wave
0xb8aa75…bf59
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: IonQ
0x3e3188…4788
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Anthropic
0x344583…55b1
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: GlobalFoundries
0x29de69…35ff
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Palantir
0x1adad0…41a5
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Anduril
0x11c846…be38
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: OpenAI
0x1166be…261b
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Lockheed Martin
0x063bcc…7969
Analysis
This probability reflects the aggregate forecast that OpenAI will receive a direct equity stake from the U.S. federal government by a specified date. The 51% probability suggests near-parity between outcomes where the government does and does not take such a stake. The outcome depends primarily on policy shifts within the executive or legislative branches regarding critical technology companies, alongside broader industrial policy trends around semiconductor and AI capabilities. The resolution will likely be driven by official government announcements, regulatory filings, or legislative action—moments that carry binary clarity. Secondary outcomes like stakes in Palantir, Spirit Airlines, Nvidia, GlobalFoundries, or Lockheed Martin show fragmented conviction across multiple sectors, with defense and advanced technology as focal areas.
- ›Executive branch policy direction on AI and technology sector equity stakes following 2024-2026 policy statements
- ›Congressional legislative action or appropriations specifically authorizing federal equity stakes in private companies
- ›Official government announcements regarding capital deployment in OpenAI, Palantir, or competing technology firms
- ›Market pricing of OpenAI at 51% versus runner-up at 45% indicates close competition but no consensus outcome
- ›Absence of prior precedent for large-scale direct equity stakes by U.S. federal government in major tech companies outside defense/aerospace sectors
What moved the line
- Jun 5Palantir↑27pp21→48¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5TSMC↑26pp8→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 31Freeport-McMoRan↑23pp17→40¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5Anthropic↑18pp23→41¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5OpenAI↑17pp23→40¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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