Club Universitario de Deportes vs. CD Garcilaso: O/U 1.5
Prediction markets currently give a 76% probability that Club Universitario de Deportes vs. CD Garcilaso: O/U 1.5. This contract trades at 76¢ on Polymarket, closing April 23, 2026. This Peru Liga 1 under-1.5 goals market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $155k open interest and a massive 44¢ spread, suggesting the 69¢ price may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
This Peru Liga 1 under-1.5 goals market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $155k open interest and a massive 44¢ spread, suggesting the 69¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The astronomical implied yields (4003% for Yes, 26469% for No) and 240% realized volatility indicate severe pricing distortion typical of thin, stale markets rather than genuine edge. With only 4 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, this appears to be a stranded position where the last trade price is disconnected from current market conditions—traders should verify current liquidity before acting on the quoted price.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming Peru Liga 1 game between Club Universitario de Deportes and CD Garcilaso, scheduled for April 22 at 9:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Club Universitario de Deportes and CD Garcilaso combine to score 2 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 2, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on liga1.pe. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Indicators
▶ Full indicator table (6)▼ Full indicator table (6)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Adj IY | 89333% |
| CRI | 3 |
| RV | 421% |
| VR | 0.27 |
| IAR | 1.1/h |
| Overround | 1.9% |
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xe940908b104643b772202ee117a16e9b0675bb780cd5495cf491d8122dc9c03b yes 100