Will the Democratic Party win the MN-03 House seat?

This market shows extreme conviction in a Democratic hold of Minnesota's 3rd district, with the Yes side priced at 92¢ reflecting a heavily favored outcome, though the 1¢ spread indicates tight liquidity despite $18.1M in open interest. The No side's 2099% implied yield is a red flag suggesting minimal trading activity and potential mispricing on the Republican side—the $0 24-hour volume confirms this is a stale market where the price may not reflect current political conditions. With 200 days to expiration and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 12, traders should be cautious about the reliability of these odds given the lack of recent price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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