Will the Republican Party win the MN-03 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with the Yes position trading at just 8¢ despite Minnesota's 3rd district being a historically competitive swing seat currently held by Democrat Dean Phillips. The 2131.6% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and suggests severe illiquidity—the $0 in 24-hour volume combined with only $13,667 open interest indicates virtually no trading activity, making the 8¢ price potentially unreliable and subject to sharp moves once volume materializes. With 197 days until resolution and a 1¢ spread, this appears to be a stale or abandoned market where the price has drifted far from fundamentals rather than reflecting genuine Republican weakness in this district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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