Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in April 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $975k open interest, and the 28¢ spread reflects significant pricing uncertainty just two weeks before expiration.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $975k open interest, and the 28¢ spread reflects significant pricing uncertainty just two weeks before expiration. The 17¢ price has doubled from 8¢ over seven days amid high realized volatility (2550%), suggesting recent news flow or positioning shifts, though the neutral regime score indicates no clear directional catalyst. The astronomical implied yield on "Yes" (12,956%) reflects the low base rate of such diplomatic meetings occurring in any given month, but with only 14 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, this market faces acute execution risk if no meeting materializes.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between April 1, and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xf02a0f12219339e7cb16489465c926bbedc5767345aafc3679683141c6cc7c41 yes 100