Will the Democrats win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2424.5% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 13.7% on the No side, reflecting the 7¢ price that prices Democrats at only a 7% win probability in heavily Republican Kentucky. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $14,043 open interest and a 2¢ spread suggests very thin liquidity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable for large trades. The market has declined 1¢ over seven days and carries a notable 13 cliff risk index, indicating significant resolution uncertainty or potential for sharp repricing closer to the 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kentucky U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

Regime

Trade