Will SOFR be above 3.75 by end of Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will SOFR be above 3.75 by end of Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $2,493, making the 38¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 6¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $2,493, making the 38¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 6¢ spread. The astronomical 981% implied yield on the Yes side combined with realized volatility of 2,241% suggests either severe mispricing or that traders are pricing in tail risk around Fed policy shifts over the next 76 days. The recent price decline from 37¢ to 33¢ over seven days indicates weakening conviction in SOFR staying above 3.75% by end-Q2 2026, though the neutral regime and low information arrival rate (0.3/h) suggest this market lacks active discovery mechanisms.
Also on polymarket at 24¢(Δ -7¢)
Resolution rules
If the first published SOFR value corresponding to the final U.S. business-day SOFR reference date for Q2 2026 is above 3.75%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCREDITC-26JUL01-T3.75 yes 100