What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
Leader sits at 37% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
3.75%
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
4.0%
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Dec 9, 2026
173 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%
0x16dd5e…93a4
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 3.75%
0xf88da0…3165
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 3.5%
0xfdf784…2312
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.0%
0xb6abfb…0fd3
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: ≥ 4.5%
0x3d20f2…78d7
Analysis
This market assigns a 54% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 4.0% through the end of 2026. The probability reflects expectations about inflation trends, economic growth, and Fed policy communications over the next seven months. Markets currently price in a June rate hold as highly likely (94% probability), with only a 46% chance of any cuts occurring before 2027. The main drivers of this probability are incoming inflation data and employment reports, which will shape Fed decisions at each meeting. The immediate catalyst is the June 2026 FOMC meeting, where markets overwhelmingly expect no change. Subsequent quarterly inflation readings and labor market indicators through year-end will determine whether the Fed adjusts from the 4.0% level.
- ›June 2026 FOMC meeting is priced at 94% probability of rate maintenance, establishing the baseline for year-end outcomes
- ›Inflation trajectory matters significantly—any sustained above-target inflation would support rates staying at 4.0% rather than declining
- ›The 46% market probability of any cuts before 2027 suggests most participants expect rates to hold steady through the end of 2026
- ›Only 13% probability assigned to cuts exceeding 25bps in 2026, indicating markets do not expect aggressive rate-cutting cycles
- ›Economic data releases between now and December—particularly CPI, PCE, and employment reports—will be the primary drivers of probability shifts
What moved the line
- Jun 174.0%↑5pp32→37¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 173.75%↑3pp35→38¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in fed rate
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Fed Holds Steady: No Rate Action Expected in July
The market is fully priced for a Fed hold in July, with the 'no hike' contract at 75¢ and a 25bps hike at 24¢. The probability of no cuts by year-end is also 75%, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' narrative.
Fed: July hike priced at 23¢, 0 cuts by year-end at 78¢ as inflation persists
Fed rate markets show strong hawkish sentiment: July hike at 23¢, cut at 1¢. Year-end: 78% chance of 0 cuts, 16% for 1 cut. Gas price markets above $3.90 confirm inflation persistence, supporting the 'no easing' view.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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