New pandemic in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that New pandemic in 2026?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows a significant 4¢ cross-venue arbitrage gap, with Polymarket pricing the pandemic risk at 11¢ versus Kalshi's 7¢, suggesting potential mispricing or venue-specific liquidity differences.
Analysis
This market shows a significant 4¢ cross-venue arbitrage gap, with Polymarket pricing the pandemic risk at 11¢ versus Kalshi's 7¢, suggesting potential mispricing or venue-specific liquidity differences. The extreme 1156% implied yield on "Yes" reflects the low base rate and binary nature, though the 255-day timeframe and $31.2M open interest provide reasonable liquidity for a tail-risk event. Price has declined 2¢ over seven days amid neutral market regime conditions, and the 8 Cliff Risk Index warrants attention given the binary resolution cliff at year-end 2026.
Also on kalshi at 9¢(Δ +2¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xfaa433e162e020c56c522acb2f9f7215ce6e4e4391c4fb42beba14275c0a43fe yes 100