Pandemic in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Pandemic in 2026?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 17¢ Kalshi price sits 5¢ above Polymarket's 12¢, suggesting either Kalshi traders are pricing in higher pandemic risk or the venues have divergent liquidity dynamics—notably, Kalshi's extremely thin $5.55 daily volume and wide 21¢ spread likely amplify this gap.
Analysis
The 17¢ Kalshi price sits 5¢ above Polymarket's 12¢, suggesting either Kalshi traders are pricing in higher pandemic risk or the venues have divergent liquidity dynamics—notably, Kalshi's extremely thin $5.55 daily volume and wide 21¢ spread likely amplify this gap. The Yes side's astronomical 1265% implied yield reflects the classic long-tail risk structure of low-probability, high-payoff events, though the 697% realized volatility and recent price climb from 6¢ to 10¢ over seven days indicate elevated uncertainty rather than consensus. With 260 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 9, this market remains highly speculative and illiquid—suitable only for risk-tolerant traders comfortable with wide bid-ask slippage.
Also on polymarket at 11¢(Δ -2¢)
Resolution rules
If any disease becomes a pandemic in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEWOUTBREAK-P-26 yes 100