SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?

The 94¢ price reflects overwhelming confidence in a SpaceX IPO above $1T valuation by end-2027, pricing in roughly 94% probability despite the company's historical resistance to going public. The extreme 917.9% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing or reflects tail-risk hedging, as the risk-adjusted yield of 459% suggests the market may be overweighting IPO occurrence probability. With $26.7M open interest but only $238K daily volume, liquidity is thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage risk for larger traders seeking to unwind positions over the next 623 days.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

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