Over $200M raised on Coinbase in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Over $200M raised on Coinbase in 2026?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with the No side offering a 366.6% implied yield versus just 55.4% for Yes, despite 72% pricing favoring resolution to Yes—a classic sign of low liquidity ($3,124 open interest) and wide 7¢ spreads creating mispricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with the No side offering a 366.6% implied yield versus just 55.4% for Yes, despite 72% pricing favoring resolution to Yes—a classic sign of low liquidity ($3,124 open interest) and wide 7¢ spreads creating mispricing. The 581% realized volatility and 7.09 vol ratio indicate this is a highly speculative, thinly-traded contract where the 14% price appreciation over seven days may reflect minimal trading rather than genuine conviction. With zero 24-hour volume and 256 days to expiry, the market lacks sufficient depth to reliably reflect Coinbase's actual fundraising prospects for 2026, making this more of a liquidity trap than a credible price discovery mechanism.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total amount raised by Coinbase token sales in 2026 exceeds the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be official information published by Coinbase, the respective Coinbase token sale pages, or official communications from projects raising on Coinbase.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xfc76ba149eb344e53b06707b5a4b89ab9df6de1263a6f5ecfa7f1a6722526e89 yes 100