Kraken IPO closing market cap above $28B?

The 11¢ price reflects extreme skepticism about a Kraken IPO closing above $28B by year-end 2026, with an 11% implied probability that has declined sharply from 17¢ seven days ago. The asymmetric 1140% implied yield on "Yes" versus 17.4% on "No" signals a classic low-probability, high-payoff bet, though the elevated realized volatility of 1407% and cliff risk index of 8 suggest significant uncertainty around IPO timing and valuation. With $2.85M open interest but only $231K in daily volume, liquidity is thin relative to the outsized payoff structure, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Krakens’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Kraken’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

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