U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The 20¢ price implies a skeptical market on U.S.-Japan trade deal completion within 14 months, though the extreme 566% implied yield on "Yes" reflects severe illiquidity with only $15,059 open interest and zero 24-hour volume.
Analysis
The 20¢ price implies a skeptical market on U.S.-Japan trade deal completion within 14 months, though the extreme 566% implied yield on "Yes" reflects severe illiquidity with only $15,059 open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 1747% realized volatility and 6.76 vol ratio suggest this market has experienced dramatic historical swings, making the current price potentially unreliable as a probability estimate given the thin liquidity and wide 5¢ spread.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xfe61b06cd6643f489a4781a327cdf06bfd639e95151d938c801758a4bea41b73 yes 100