What is the current probability for "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Original Anime?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 10¢ (10% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 23, 2027. 396 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Original Anime?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 675.2% and 12.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Original Anime?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Original Anime?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Original Anime?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing May 23, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with just $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable.

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10¢

Bid/Ask 11/16¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $18·OI $71·Closes May 23, 2027·396d remaining

KXANIMEBOA-26-MOB

7-day price35 snapshots · 2 regime

12¢11¢ current

Apr 183¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with just $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable. The 2181.8% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of minimal liquidity rather than genuine edge, while the 10¢ spread represents 71% of the current price. With 402 days until expiry and a specific resolution criterion tied to a single anime title's award performance, this appears to be a niche novelty market lacking sufficient depth for meaningful trading.

Resolution rules

If Mobile Suit Gundam GQuuuuuuX has won Best Original Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 675.2%

IY (No) 12.6%

Adj IY 675%

CRI 7

RV 1128%

VR 3.19

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	675.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	12.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	675%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1128%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.19	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

maker

Score

0.295

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 3:19:43 AM

Observability noneEvent type cultural

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 3:08:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXANIMEBOA-26-MOB yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →