Will there be between 110m and 115m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2.3M open interest, suggesting the $2.3M figure may be stale or concentrated among few positions. The 26¢ price implies only a 26% probability for the 110-115m vote range, which appears pessimistic given that 2022 House midterms saw 113.6m votes cast—squarely within this band—making a repeat outcome reasonably plausible. The astronomical 518% implied yield and 1,700% realized volatility signal this is a highly speculative, thinly-traded market where price discovery is unreliable, and the sharp two-week rally from 14¢ to 26¢ warrants caution about whether recent buyers are overweighting tail scenarios or if the market is simply repricing off minimal volume.

Resolution rules

The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.

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