Will there be between 85m and 90m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?

This market is severely mispriced with a 6¢ quote implying only a 6% probability for a 85-90m vote range, yet the 2022 midterms saw 113.6m House votes cast, making this narrow band extraordinarily unlikely and suggesting the price reflects extreme illiquidity rather than rational valuation. The $0 24-hour volume, wide 9¢ spread, and minimal $1.4m open interest indicate this is a dead market with no price discovery, while the absurd 2,849% implied yield on "Yes" signals the pricing is purely a function of thin liquidity rather than genuine market consensus. With 201 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 2,283%, this market lacks sufficient trading activity to trust any directional signal.

Resolution rules

The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.

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