2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This illiquid market on Josh O'Connor's 2027 Oscar nomination shows extreme asymmetry, with a 249.5% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 13.7% on the No side, suggesting significant mispricing or very low confidence in the contract's viability.
Analysis
This illiquid market on Josh O'Connor's 2027 Oscar nomination shows extreme asymmetry, with a 249.5% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 13.7% on the No side, suggesting significant mispricing or very low confidence in the contract's viability. The price has declined sharply from 27¢ to 19¢ over seven days despite the wide 7¢ spread and near-zero 24h volume ($0), indicating potential market abandonment rather than active trading. With only $491 in open interest and over 600 days until expiry, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal liquidity and elevated cliff risk (score of 4), making it difficult to assess whether the 24% probability reflects genuine sentiment or simply reflects the market's illiquidity.
Resolution rules
If Josh O'Connor has been nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMACTO-27-JOS yes 100