2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome at just 6¢, implying only a 6% chance that Toy Story 5 receives a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination at the 2027 Oscars, with a massive 1,405% implied yield on Yes positions reflecting severe mispricing or near-zero conviction.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome at just 6¢, implying only a 6% chance that Toy Story 5 receives a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination at the 2027 Oscars, with a massive 1,405% implied yield on Yes positions reflecting severe mispricing or near-zero conviction. The $300 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate severe illiquidity, making the 8¢ spread potentially misleading as a true execution cost. The 624-day time horizon and neutral regime suggest this is a speculative position with moderate cliff risk (24), though the extraordinarily high yield on the Yes side hints that informed traders may see hidden value in an animated sequel's nomination chances that the current price doesn't reflect.
Resolution rules
If Toy Story 5 has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMASPLAY-27-TOY yes 100