Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This market on Jared Polis's 2028 Democratic primary intentions shows minimal activity with zero 24-hour volume despite $3,697.59 in open interest, suggesting low liquidity and a wide 5¢ spread. The 49¢ price implies roughly even odds, but the asymmetric implied yields (60.8% for Yes vs. 56.1% for No) indicate slight underpricing of the Yes outcome, with a risk-adjusted yield of 30% reflecting meaningful uncertainty. With 625 days until expiration and a neutral regime score, the market appears fairly valued but illiquid, making it sensitive to any major political developments or Polis announcements.

Resolution rules

If Jared Polis announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Regime

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