Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This market is pricing Harris as a 61% favorite to run in 2028, with notably asymmetric risk-adjusted yields favoring the No side at 80.7% versus 42.3% for Yes, suggesting the market perceives significant downside risk to a Harris candidacy despite the majority probability. The contract has shown steady upward momentum over seven days (54¢ to 58¢ to current 61¢) on relatively thin liquidity of $21,260 open interest and just $460 in daily volume, making the price vulnerable to larger trades. With 625 days until expiration and a tight 3¢ spread, there's ample time for sentiment shifts, though the elevated No-side yield warrants caution about the sustainability of current Yes pricing.

Resolution rules

If Kamala Harris announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

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