Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This AOC 2028 nomination market shows moderate liquidity with $28k open interest but thin daily volume at just $4.98, suggesting limited trader interest in this specific outcome. The 49¢ price implies roughly even odds, though the exceptionally high realized volatility of 138% and vol ratio of 1.83 indicate substantial price swings relative to the information arriving (0.3/h), pointing to speculative positioning rather than fundamental conviction. With 625 days to expiry and a tight 1¢ spread, the symmetric 58.4% implied yield on both sides reflects balanced risk, though the low information arrival rate suggests this market may remain relatively quiet until late 2027 when Democratic primary dynamics crystallize.

Resolution rules

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

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