Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This market prices Josh Shapiro's 2028 Democratic primary run at 85% probability with a notably asymmetric risk profile: the "No" side offers a 234% annualized yield versus just 14.6% for "Yes," reflecting the binary nature of the outcome. With only $2,707 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume despite a 625-day runway, liquidity is extremely thin, making the 4¢ spread potentially misleading for actual execution. The 75% realized volatility and 1.94 vol ratio suggest significant uncertainty remains despite the high price, particularly given the 4/10 cliff risk index and steady 2-point price climb over seven days.

Resolution rules

If Josh Shapiro announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

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