Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028
Abigail Spanberger is priced at 33¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 33¢ bid, 34¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #13 of 16 inside Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028.
Price history
33¢ current
−6¢Contract brief
If Abigail Spanberger announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Abigail Spanberger
Rank
#13 of 16
Leader
Gavin Newsom 87¢
Range
11¢-87¢
Family volume
$985
Identifier
KX2028DRUN-28-ASPA
Jun 3, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
33¢
Ask
34¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$22
Family rank
#13 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Family volume
$985
Orderbook snapshot
33 / 34¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Abigail Spanberger announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Identifier
KX2028DRUN-28-ASPA
Event family
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$985
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Gavin Newsom 87¢
Current share
2%
Gavin Newsom
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-GNEW
Pete Buttigieg
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-PBUT
Josh Shapiro
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-JSHA
Rahm Emanuel
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-REMA
Ro Khanna
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-RKHA
Cory Booker
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-CBOOK
Mark Kelly
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-MKEL
Kamala Harris
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-KHAR
Wes Moore
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-WMOO
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-AOC
Jared Polis
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-JPOL
Jon Ossoff
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-JOSS
Abigail Spanberger
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-ASPA
Gretchen Whitmer
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-GWHI
Stephen A. Smith
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-SAS
Hunter Biden
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-HBID
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.