Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This market on Andy Beshear's 2028 Democratic primary entry shows extremely asymmetric risk, with a 219.8% implied yield for "No" contrasting sharply against 15.5% for "Yes" despite the 82¢ price suggesting high probability. The $0 24-hour volume and modest $2,797 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, making the 82¢ price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to large moves. With 625 days to resolution and a moderate 4 cliff risk index, the market appears to be pricing in Beshear's candidacy as highly likely, but the extreme yield skew and dead volume warrant caution on execution.

Resolution rules

If Andy Beshear announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

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