Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This Kalshi contract on Gretchen Whitmer's 2028 Democratic primary entry is pricing her candidacy at 65%, but the market shows minimal conviction with zero 24-hour volume and just $4,813 open interest. The asymmetric implied yields—32.9% for Yes versus 103.9% for No—suggest the No side is significantly underpriced relative to the Yes position, creating a potential arbitrage opportunity if you believe the market is overweighting Whitmer's likelihood. With 625 days to expiry and a tight 4¢ spread, this appears to be a thinly-traded contract where price discovery may be incomplete.

Resolution rules

If Gretchen Whitmer announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

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