Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This Tim Walz nomination market shows extreme mispricing with a 672% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and just $4,170 open interest, suggesting illiquidity is driving the 7¢ price rather than genuine probability assessment. The recent price spike from 5¢ to 8¢ over seven days combined with the wide 1¢ spread indicates thin order books and potential for significant slippage. With 625 days until expiry and a moderate 12 cliff risk index, the market has ample time for information to resolve uncertainty, but the lack of trading activity makes this more of a pricing anomaly than a reliable prediction.

Resolution rules

If Tim Walz announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade