Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. This Elise Stefanik nomination market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and minimal $558 open interest, making the 8¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This Elise Stefanik nomination market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and minimal $558 open interest, making the 8¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 590.8% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic illiquidity artifact—the 1¢ spread and low OI suggest the market lacks sufficient depth to support meaningful trades at these levels. With 625 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 10, this contract carries substantial execution risk and should be treated as a speculative indicator rather than a reliable probability estimate.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Elise Stefanik announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KX2028RRUN-28-ESTE yes 100