Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market has experienced significant downward price movement over seven days (64¢ to 47¢), suggesting declining conviction that gas will exceed $4.60 by year-end 2026, though the 159.4% implied yield on the Yes side indicates substantial compensation for that tail risk.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant downward price movement over seven days (64¢ to 47¢), suggesting declining conviction that gas will exceed $4.60 by year-end 2026, though the 159.4% implied yield on the Yes side indicates substantial compensation for that tail risk. Liquidity is notably thin with only $275.75 in 24-hour volume against $1,946.77 open interest, and the extreme realized volatility of 346% combined with a vol ratio of 2.78 suggests this contract experiences outsized price swings relative to market expectations. The 7¢ spread and neutral regime score (0.365) reflect genuine uncertainty, though the resolution criterion—requiring gas to touch $4.60 at any point over the next 258 days—may be underpriced given historical price volatility and geopolitical risk factors affecting energy markets.
Resolution rules
If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.60 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (3)
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-4.60 yes 100