Will average gas prices be above $4.60
Leader sits at 97% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 96%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 4.30
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
96¢
Above 4.31
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$390K
liquid
Closes
May 31, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will average gas prices be above $4.3
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.32?: Above 4.32
KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-4.32
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.33?: Above 4.33
KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-4.33
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.30?: Above 4.30
KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-4.30
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.31?: Above 4.31
KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-4.31
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.34?: Above 4.34
KXAAAGASM-26MAY31-4.34
Analysis
This represents a 96% probability that average U.S. gas prices will exceed $4.60 per gallon over a specified period. The high probability reflects current market pricing where contracts for thresholds near $4.44–$4.50 trade close to parity, indicating traders expect prices to remain elevated. Key drivers include crude oil price movements, refinery capacity constraints, seasonal demand patterns, and geopolitical supply disruptions. The main uncertainty hinges on whether crude prices remain above current levels and whether summer demand materializes as expected. Resolution depends on actual average price data from the relevant measurement period, with historical volatility suggesting significant moves remain possible.
- ›Crude oil price levels: Brent/WTI prices must sustain above thresholds that support $4.60+ retail prices; a decline below $80/barrel would lower probability materially
- ›Refinery utilization and capacity: Operating levels above 90% support higher prices; planned maintenance outages could tighten supply and increase prices
- ›Seasonal demand: Summer driving season (May-September) typically raises consumption; a weaker-than-expected season would reduce upward pressure
- ›Gasoline inventory levels: Weekly EIA data showing inventory builds above 5-year average would suggest downward price pressure
- ›Dollar strength and geopolitical risk: USD appreciation increases crude import costs' burden on producers; Middle East tensions or supply disruptions could push prices higher
What moved the line
- May 31Above 4.32↑17pp75→92¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Above 4.33↑12pp55→67¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in oil
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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