Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.80 by Dec 31, 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.5k open interest, and the 10¢ spread suggests thin order books on both sides. The Yes position's 240% implied yield is notably inflated relative to the No side's 83% yield, indicating the market may be mispricing the probability of California gas exceeding $6.80—current prices averaging around $3.50 suggest this would require a 94% increase over 259 days, which the 46% probability seems generous for. The sharp 7-day rally from 13¢ to 37¢ combined with neutral regime conditions and low cliff risk (2) suggests this may be a speculative position rather than fundamental repricing, warranting caution on the asymmetric yield profile.

Resolution rules

If average regular gas prices for California are strictly greater than $6.80 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Edges (2)

Trade